Get Free Ebook The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--but Some Don't
Get Free Ebook The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--but Some Don't
Why need to await some days to get or receive the book The Signal And The Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--but Some Don't that you buy? Why must you take it if you could obtain The Signal And The Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--but Some Don't the quicker one? You can discover the exact same book that you get here. This is it the book The Signal And The Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--but Some Don't that you could get straight after buying. This The Signal And The Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--but Some Don't is well known book around the world, of course many individuals will attempt to own it. Why don't you end up being the initial? Still puzzled with the means?
The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--but Some Don't
Get Free Ebook The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--but Some Don't
Why must choose the trouble one if there is simple? Get the profit by purchasing guide The Signal And The Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--but Some Don't right here. You will certainly get different method to make a deal as well as get the book The Signal And The Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--but Some Don't As known, nowadays. Soft data of the books The Signal And The Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--but Some Don't become preferred with the users. Are you one of them? And also below, we are offering you the brand-new compilation of ours, the The Signal And The Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--but Some Don't.
This is a very practical publication that needs to be read. The adhering to may use you the method to get this publication. It is really alleviate. When the other individuals need to walk around and go outdoors to get guide in the book store, you can simply be by visiting this website. There is offered web link that you could discover. It will certainly lead you to see guide web page as well as get the The Signal And The Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--but Some Don't Finished with the download as well as get this publication, start to read.
Reserve, will not constantly is related to just what you have to obtain. Bok can additionally be in some different styles. Religious beliefs, Sciences, socials, sporting activities, politics, legislation, and many book styles come to be the sources that in some cases you should read all. However, when you have had the analysis behavior as well as find out more books as The Signal And The Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--but Some Don't, you could feel better. Why? Since, your possibility to review is not just for the need in that time but also for constant activities to constantly boost as well as boost your brighter future and life quality.
Even the file of the book is in soft data, it does not mean that the web content is various. It just distinguishes through the book provided. When you have the soft data of The Signal And The Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--but Some Don't, you can extremely easy saving this data right into some particular tools. The computer, gizmo, and also laptop computers are suitable sufficient to conserve guide. So, wherever you are, you can be available to set the time to check out.
Review
One of Wall Street Journal's Best Ten Works of Nonfiction in 2012“Not so different in spirit from the way public intellectuals like John Kenneth Galbraith once shaped discussions of economic policy and public figures like Walter Cronkite helped sway opinion on the Vietnam War…could turn out to be one of the more momentous books of the decade.”—New York Times Book Review“Mr. Silver, just 34, is an expert at finding signal in noise… Lively prose — from energetic to outraged… illustrates his dos and don’ts through a series of interesting essays that examine how predictions are made in fields including chess, baseball, weather forecasting, earthquake analysis and politics… [the] chapter on global warming is one of the most objective and honest analyses I’ve seen… even the noise makes for a good read.”—New York Times"A serious treatise about the craft of prediction—without academic mathematics—cheerily aimed at lay readers. Silver's coverage is polymathic, ranging from poker and earthquakes to climate change and terrorism."—New York Review of Books"Mr. Silver's breezy style makes even the most difficult statistical material accessible. What is more, his arguments and examples are painstakingly researched..."—Wall Street Journal"Nate Silver is the Kurt Cobain of statistics... His ambitious new book, The Signal and the Noise, is a practical handbook and a philosophical manifesto in one, following the theme of prediction through a series of case studies ranging from hurricane tracking to professional poker to counterterrorism. It will be a supremely valuable resource for anyone who wants to make good guesses about the future, or who wants to assess the guesses made by others. In other words, everyone."—The Boston Globe"Silver delivers an improbably breezy read on what is essentially a primer on making predictions."—Washington Post “The Signal and the Noise is many things — an introduction to the Bayesian theory of probability, a meditation on luck and character, a commentary on poker's insights into life — but it's most important function is its most basic and absolutely necessary one right now: a guide to detecting and avoiding bullshit dressed up as data…What is most refreshing… is its humility. Sometimes we have to deal with not knowing, and we need somebody to tell us that.”—Esquire“[An] entertaining popularization of a subject that scares many people off… Silver’s journey from consulting to baseball analytics to professional poker to political prognosticating is very much that of a restless and curious mind. And this, more than number-crunching, is where real forecasting prowess comes from.”—Slate“Nate Silver serves as a sort of Zen master to American election-watchers… In the spirit of Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s widely read “The Black Swan”, Mr. Silver asserts that humans are overconfident in their predictive abilities, that they struggle to think in probabilistic terms and build models that do not allow for uncertainty.”—The Economist"Silver explores our attempts at forecasting stocks, storms, sports, and anything else not set in stone."—Wired"The Signal and the Noise is essential reading in the era of Big Data that touches every business, every sports event, and every policymaker."—Forbes.com“Laser sharp. Surprisingly, statistics in Silver’s hands is not without some fun.”—Smithsonian Magazine“A substantial, wide-ranging, and potentially important gauntlet of probabilistic thinking based on actual data thrown at the feet of a culture determined to sweep away silly liberal notions like ‘facts.’”—The Village Voice“Silver shines a light on 600 years of human intelligence-gathering—from the advent of the printing press all the way through the Industrial Revolution and up to the current day—and he finds that it's been an inspiring climb. We've learned so much, and we still have so much left to learn.”—MLB.com“Nate Silver’s The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century (a century we thought we’d be a lot better at predicting than we actually are). Our political discourse is already better informed and more data-driven because of Nate’s influence. But here he shows us what he has always been able to see in the numbers—the heart and the ethical imperative of getting the quantitative questions right. A wonderful read—totally engrossing.”—Rachel Maddow, author of Drift “Yogi Berra was right: ‘forecasting is hard, especially about the future.’ In this important book, Nate Silver explains why the performance of experts varies from prescient to useless and why we must plan for the unexpected. Must reading for anyone who cares about what might happen next.”—Richard Thaler, co-author of Nudge — Press and Praise
Read more
About the Author
Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.com.
Read more
See all Editorial Reviews
Product details
Paperback: 560 pages
Publisher: Penguin Books; Reprint edition (February 3, 2015)
Language: English
ISBN-10: 0143125087
ISBN-13: 978-0143125082
Product Dimensions:
5.5 x 1.2 x 8.5 inches
Shipping Weight: 1 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
Average Customer Review:
4.4 out of 5 stars
1,160 customer reviews
Amazon Best Sellers Rank:
#10,611 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
What could have been a difficult topic was very well handled. Provided insight in to disparate elements such as political forecasting, weather, chess, poker,baseball and the economy. Well done, especially the discussions related to Baysean analysis and the need to think in terms of probabilities.
This book was first published in 2012, at a time when Big Data (or if you prefer, big data) was only beginning to receive the attention it deserves as a better way to use analytics within and beyond the business world. One key point is that big data should also be right data and in sufficient quantity. I recently re-read the book, in its paperbound edition. Thde quality and value of its insights have held up remarkably well.In the years that followed publication of the first edition, as Nate Silver notes in the new Preface, the perception that statisticians are soothsayers was proven to be an exaggeration, at best, and a dangerous assumption, at worst. This new edition "makes some recommendations but they are philosophical as much as technical. Once we're getting the big stuff right -- coming to a better [i.e. more accurate and more reliable] understanding of probability and uncertainty; learning to recognize our biases; appreciating the value of diversity, incentives, and experimentation -- we'll have the luxury of worrying about the finer points of technique."In the Introduction to the First Edition, Silver observes, "If there is one thing that defines Americans -- one thing that makes us exceptional -- it is our belief in Cassius' idea that we are in control of our own fates." In t his instance, Silver refers to a passage in Shakespeare's play, Julius Caesar, when Cassius observes:"Men at some time are masters of their fates.The fault, dear Brutus, is not in our stars,But in ourselves, that we are underlings."(Act 1, Scene 2, Lines 146-148)Cassius' assertion has serious implications and significant consequences. It is directly relevant to a theory named after Reverend Thomas Bayes (1701–1761), who first provided an equation that allows new evidence to update beliefs in his An Essay towards solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances (1763). Silver: "Bayes's theorem is nominally a mathematical formula. But it is really much more than that. It implies that we must think differently about our ideas [predictions, for example] -- and how to test them. We must become more comfortable with probability and uncertainty. We must think more carefully about the assumptions and beliefs that we bring to a problem."Silver cites another passage in Julius Caesar when Cicero warns Caesar: "Men may construe things, after their fashion / Clean from the purpose of things themselves." According to Silver, man perceives information selectively, subjectively, "and without much self-regard for the distortions this causes. We think we want information when we want knowledge." I take "want" to have a double meaning: lack and desire. Silver goes on to suggest, "the signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth. This is a book about the signal and the noise...We may focus on those signals that advance our preferred theory about the world, or might imply a more optimistic outcome. Or we may simply focus on the ones that fit with bureaucratic protocol, like the doctrine that sabotage rather than an air attack was the more likely threat to Pearl Harbor."In their review of the book for The New Yorker (January 25, 2013), Gary Marcus and Ernest Davis observe: "Switching to a Bayesian method of evaluating statistics will not fix the underlying problems; cleaning up science requires changes to the way in which scientific research is done and evaluated, not just a new formula." That is, we need to think about how we think so that we can make better decisions.In Thinking, Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman explains how an easy question ("How coherent is the narrative of a given situation?") is often substituted for a more difficult one ("How probable is it?"). And this, according to Kahneman, is the source of many of the biases that infect our thinking. Kahneman and Tversky's System 1 jumps to an intuitive conclusion based on a “heuristic†— an easy but imperfect way of answering hard questions — and System 2 lazily endorses this heuristic answer without bothering to scrutinize whether it is logical). And this, according to Kahneman, is the source of many of the biases that infect our thinking. System 1 jumps to an intuitive conclusion based on a “heuristic†— an easy but imperfect way of answering hard questions — and System 2 lazily endorses this heuristic answer without bothering to scrutinize whether it is logical.When an unprecedented disaster occurs, some people may feel at least some doubt that they are in control of their fate. Nate Silver offers this reminder: "But our bias is to think we are better at prediction than we really are. The first twelve months of the new millennium have been rough, with one unpredicted disaster after another. May we arise from the ashes of these beaten but not bowed, a little more modest about our forecasting abilities, and a little less likely to repeat our mistakes."A Jewish proverb suggests that man plans and then God laughs. The same could be said of man's predictions.
This is the best general-readership book on applied statistics that I've read. Short review: if you're interested in science, economics, or prediction: read it. It's full of interesting cases, builds intuition, and is a readable example of Bayesian thinking.Longer review: I'm an applied business researcher and that means my job is to deliver quality forecasts: to make them, persuade people of them, and live by the results they bring. Silver's new book offers a wealth of insight for many different audiences. It will help you to develop intuition for the kinds of predictions that are possible, that are not so possible, where they may go wrong, and how to avoid some common pitfalls.The core concept is this: prediction is a vital part of science, of business, of politics, of pretty much everything we do. But we're not very good at it, and fall prey to cognitive biases and other systemic problems such as information overload that make things worse. However, we are simultaneously learning more about how such things occur and that knowledge can be used to make predictions better -- and to improve our models in science, politics, business, medicine, and so many other areas.The book presents real-world experience and critical reflection on what happens to research in social contexts. Data-driven models with inadequate theory can lead to terrible inferences. For example, on p. 162: "What happens in systems with noisy data and underdeveloped theory - like earthquake prediction and parts of economic and political science - is a two-step process. First, people start to mistake the noise for a signal. Second, this noise pollutes journals, blogs, and news accounts with false alarms, undermining good science and setting back our ability to understand how the system really works." This is the kind of insight that every good practitioner acquires through hard-won battles, and continues to wrestle every day both in doing work and in communicating it to others.It is both readable and technically accurate: it presents just enough model details yet avoids being formula-heavy. Statisticians will be able to reproduce models similar to the ones he discusses, but general readers will not be left out: the material is clear and applicable. Scholars of all stripes will appreciate the copious notes and citations, 56 pages of notes and another 20 pages of index, which detail the many sources. It is also important to note that this is perhaps the best general readership book from a Bayesian perspective -- a viewpoint that is overdue for readable exposition.The models cover a diversity of areas from baseball to politics, from earthquakes to finance, from climate science to chess. Of course this makes the book fascinating to generalists, geeks, and breadth thinkers, but perhaps more importantly, I think it serves well to develop reusable intuition across domains. And, for those of us who practice such things professionally, to bring stories and examples that we can tell and use to illustrate concepts with the people we inform.There are three audiences who might not appreciate the book as much. First are students looking for a how-to book. Silver provides a lot of pointers and examples, but does not get into nuts and bolts details or supply foundational technical instruction. That requires coursework in research methods and and statistics. Second, his approach to doing multiple models and interpreting them humbly will not satisfy those who promote a naive, gee-whiz, "look how great these new methods are" approach to research. But then, that's not a problem; it's a good thing. The third non-fitting audience will be experts who desire depth in one of the book's many topic areas; it's not a technical treatise for them and I can confidently predict grumbling in some quarters. Overall, those three audiences are small, which happily leaves the rest of us to enjoy the book.What would make it better? As a pro, I'd like a little more depth (of course). It emphasizes games a little too much for my taste. And a clearer prescriptive framework could be nice (but also could be a problem for reasons he illustrates). But those are minor points; it hits its target better than any other such book I know.Conclusion: if you're interested in scientific or statistical forecasting, either as a professional or layperson, or if you simply enjoy general science books, get it. Cheers!
The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--but Some Don't PDF
The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--but Some Don't EPub
The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--but Some Don't Doc
The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--but Some Don't iBooks
The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--but Some Don't rtf
The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--but Some Don't Mobipocket
The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--but Some Don't Kindle
0 comments